Missing historical data
Two new Covid-related efforts: an open letter and a new forecast series
Announcing new Metaculus covid-related initiatives: open letter and a forecast series
$50K AI Prediction Contest Launches Today
The forecasting platform Metaculus is hosting the Li Wenliang prize series for contributions to the forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?
The Li Wenliang prize series: a set of prizes that will be awarded for contributions to the forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak
Weekly Round-up of most discussed predictions: the extent of the Coronavirus outbreak
Announcing the Bentham Prize: a prize series for contributing to forecasting animal welfare issues
Weekly Round-up of most discussed predictions: How immunotherapy might help bring average survival rate of all cancers to exceed 75% this decade, and how Google's breakthrough in protein folding might bring us closer to solving one of the biggest puzzles in biochemistry
Weekly Round-up of most discussed predictions: the trend toward banning facial recognition systems in the U.S.; how Nuclear Fusion might be too late to help with the climate crisis; and the doubts around whether Tesla can deliver sales
metaculus.com weekly guest posts
Reducing Animal Suffering by Predicting Animal Suffering
Future of Animal Welfare Prediction Competition
Up-to-date list of subs that can be advertised on
MDMA therapy achieves astounding 76% success rate for treating PTSD
Shows the Silver Award... and that's it.
“Magic Mushrooms” May Be an FDA-Approved Drug for Anxiety and Depression in the Near Future
Gives 100 Reddit Coins and a week of r/lounge access and ad-free browsing.
New updates for Interest targeting
Will AI Progress Surprise Us? Will AI progress be unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages? Predict here! https://t.co/OA2r82DBCf (cc: @robinhanson) https://t.co/8o2GgiNoam
When will the Apple Car be unveiled?
Hey, when are we gonna get a Flat Earther candidate for national office? Will it be within the next couple of revolutions of the disc (?) around (??) the "Sun"?
Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up? How likely do you think that is? https://t.co/kJ3JtYHaW3 https://t.co/BmwrS8rrcC
*New Question* Should daylight savings time still be a thing? Will California abolish it by 2020? Make your predictions here! https://t.co/q0uuCCI3TZ https://t.co/aZPTF2xSXT
